At 1000 this morning, January 19, the Picton Castle is at 16-08 South latitude and 070-22 East longitude, over two thirds of the way across the Southern Indian Ocean, bound from Bali for Reunion Island of France. We have come about 2,700 nautical miles from Bali in mostly excellent sailing conditions and we are about 900 nautical miles east-north-east of Reunion Island, where it is our fondest desire to get to.
Conditions now are less than excellent. Winds are northerly right now, at Force 5 on our starboard beam on a squally day. “Squally” means, among other things, sporadic rain and course changes to accommodate shifting winds. Seas are 5-7 feet and a couple large swells coming in from elsewhere- a SW swell from some disturbance deep in the Roaring 40s (south latitude) and a NW swell from something I do not know about up in the monsoon area off East Africa. Standard Force 5 whitecaps and some spray. We are making 7 knots under sail and motor, steering 260 degrees true, or just south of west, with a view to not being here or near this area when, and if, a tropical storm that has been forecast to form happens to show up.
It does not exist yet but I believe it will likely form, and be here in this area in a few days – all the weather computer forecast models seem to agree. In point of fact, they do not always agree. But if this storm does form we do not want to be in it, if we can avoid it. It is expected to track westward, then likely turn more to the south at some point, so we will see if we can stay ahead of it, and better yet, out of its way, or if it keeps heading west maybe we will need to claw our way out of it by making for a more northerly region of the ocean to the northwest later. We will see.
In the mean time we are all snug as can be and the ship is well stowed and crew all geared up as well as can be done. All the running rigging is good with some renewing of some sheets and the like to strongest possible gear. We are fortunate to have, in addition to our own weather forecasts, good professional advice and counsel coming in from experts ashore as well by way of satellite communications, with thoughts on how to best proceed and manage dealing with crap weather, to augment my own thinking and that of Dirk as well. Those ashore also have access to more internet data than do we onboard, so all in all, a boon.
All is good enough for now. The sea water is warm. 30C and 83.4F. Hot water means stormy conditions exist. We are making good progress on our desired course. It looks like winds will go light tomorrow for a couple days as we make 150-170 nautical miles a day ever westward. Daily briefings for crew are the order of the day. A bit of rain on and off makes deck work a dispiriting affair – the sun will return someday. It always does.